What Would Happen If Gulf Nations Stop Exporting Oil and Natural Gas to India?

Recently, there is a growing hatred for Indians (particularly Hindus) in Middle-East Asia, as many fake social media posts are being circulated to inflame their people and Government to take verbal and physical actions against India (and Indians). One of the most direct way via which Middle East countries can hit India is to cut resources (oil and Natural Gas Supply) to India. This post focuses on the aftermaths if such a scenario takes place.

At the present moment India (which imports 84% of its oil from Middle Eastern Countries majorly from Saudi Arabia and Iraq) and China are largest importers of crude oil in the world, hence the largest oil trading partners of Middle Eastern bloc.

If the Middle East Countries take such a strong action, then India would have the following choices;

1. India might cancel major trade agreements, RIL Aramco deal and MOU’s. The loss to Saudi will be industrial equivalent to adding insult to injury. Billions of dollars wavering at brink of loss the Saudi Arabia the self proclaimed champion of Islam in world may give up under pressure and talk in other middle eastern countries to resume their supplies.
2. India can talk in with USA and RUSSIA to create a diplomatic pressure over Middle eastern countries.
3.  India will turn to the country espousing the largest oil reserve on earth and that is Venezuela. True that venezuela is enduring sanctions imposed by USA right now, but if India takes its grievance to the US government surely both can cut out a deal for India. Since venezuela does not a has buyer to its oil right now, it may provide a conducive deal to India and a deeper footprint in South America.

However....

The chances for such a hostile action is least expected from the Gulf nations. It has been a rough guess that the oil reserve in the middle east might run out within 30–35 years. So after being deprived of their crown jewel what are these middle east nations going to do ? How are they going to earn ? How are they going to build their nations up since the revenue influx from the oil reserve is going to cease ?

Simple answer to this question is the Arab countries will venture out in search of other alternatives, other means to pump their treasury up. And what are those other means going to be ?

It isnot an irony that within next 30 years when the oil fields of the Middle East runs dry, South Asia which is right now one of the biggest consumer market over the globe espousing 1/3rd of world’s population by that time will become a epicentre of trade and market activities integrated in the global trade with major stakes in hand.

There are two major players in South Asia, India and China. The whole world is fully aware of china’s expansionist policies. Wary of their dangerous business model involving investment of gigantic amount of seed capital only to bring that country under it's influence. Having foreseen this, the governments of Middle eastern countries have started to strengthen their ties with the developing south Asian countries, establishing diplomatic relations, trade cooperations with countries like India, since last several years. One of the latest developments in this row is crown prince of Saudi Arabia, Mohammed Bin Salman’s state visit to India last year, signing up business and investments deals with all these countries worth billions of dollars which will start materializing within few years.